Why the Kenyan electorate is changing, throwing 2022 hopefuls a curveball

By Geoffrey Mbosero | @Geombos

Kenyans of a certain persuasion, mostly college-educated folks tired of the constant cycle of tribal politics, have long harbored hopes of a local transformation, a renaissance of sorts that would inject active civic responsibility and accountability into the political process. The thinking envisages a Kenya where elections are decided on the merits, and not the surnames of key players, where political charlatans are relegated to the fringes and corruption is punished, not rewarded.

This utopia-esque future has always been frustratingly elusive; most Kenyans always vote along tribal and community lines, ethnic charlatans have always risen to the top of the power pyramid, and intellectualism has typically been banished to the edges of government. Is this dynamic about to change?

Several recent developments presage changes to Kenya’s political culture that will disrupt the fundamental reward-penalty reality in Kenya. The sluggish takeoff of the BBI process, the apparent mutiny in the Mount Kenya region against the establishment, the ostensive energy behind the hustler movement, and the overarching anti-establishment sentiment populist momentum in Kenya are harbingers of a coming-of-age that the country has hitherto always threatened.

A Sluggish BBI Process

In 2005, when Kenya had the first of the modern constitutional reforms referendums, the process was bitterly contested. With different drafts of the new constitution bandied around, heading into the Orange-Banana contest, the country was headed to a divided referendum with the opposition, led by Raila Odinga, chiefly rejecting the imperial presidency enshrined in the Wako draft. The postmortem of the 2005 referendum, which the government lost, was that it is essential to build a winning consensus before posing a referendum, instead of creating a draft and ramming it down Kenyans throats.

The current BBI discourse bears some similarities to the 2005 process. The government is in the driving seat, the proposed changes do not seem to have widespread popularity among many Kenyans, and a significant movement opposed to the changes is gathering pace. These factors should serve as a canary in the coal mine. Nevertheless, there are also considerable differences between 2005 and 2021 and the BBI-led constitutional change process.

Firstly, the country already has a new constitution, the 2010 document has been hailed as one of the most progressive in Africa; secondly, the process has been hijacked by a once-in-a-generation COVID-19 pandemic that has decimated economic growth and upended Kenyan lives; thirdly, the opposition to the BBI process is shaping up to be a multi-tribal and multi-generational coalition, which is disrupting the traditional tribal lines along which political processes are conducted.

The latter is especially of crucial import because of its potential ramifications to the country’s body-politics. Blurring the tribal lines in the political process will upend the country’s entire culture and threaten to disempower a whole generation of politicians whose success heavily depends on the status quo. Although the establishment is fighting doggedly to maintain a nourished tribal ecosystem, the forces of change are pushing back relentlessly. If history serves as a template, it is a matter of when, not if, these changes come to the fore and dominate the local culture and jurisprudence.

Most local observers, especially the Kenyan media, typically crystallize trends into labels and catchphrases. The ‘hustler nation’ represents the evanescing flavor, which works to the benefit of Deputy President William Ruto. However, beyond the personalities appropriating the disenfranchised and disillusioned Kenyan is a rather significant development that is likely to substantially reshape the country. Led by young people, most Kenyans recognize that the status quo is not working for them and that change is necessary.

The concept of change here is a continuum for most people in the country; some want a different president, some want a specific president, others want more wholesale transformation to governance. The thirsting for the country to take a different direction is novel in political thinking in Kenya. It underscores an inflection point that will shape politics in the country for decades to come. There is a realization among many Kenyans of the commonality of challenges facing them and their sources’ singularity. The emerging focus on the political class’s failures is gradually loosening the bonds of tribalism and introducing many people to the power of unity of purpose.

A Mutiny in Mount Kenya

Perhaps the most emblematic example of Kenya’s emerging political dynamic is the Mount Kenya community’s apparent refusal to play to the drumbeat of the community’s erstwhile all-powerful establishment and elite class. In the post-2002 era, the Mount Kenya community has been steadfast and consistent in supporting its candidates for president – Retired President Kibaki and current president Kenyatta – sometimes facing bigotry, ridicule, and hate speech across the country. However, there is an emerging consensus among people in this region that – the essential characteristic of a president is not their surname but the ideas, plans, and ideologies that will shape their presidency and the impact this will have on ordinary people. Such independent thinking, which goes against the grain of the establishment and elites, is unheard-of, and it heralds a new era that is challenging conventional thinking.

Critics argue that the mutiny has been occasioned by the fact that President Kenyatta is on his last term, and the region is not fronting a candidate, which is typically the ultimate uniting factor in the region. Others argue that the region was not so disciplined in the pre-2002 period, with both Mwai Kibaki and Kenneth Matiba vying for president against then president Moi. However, this critique does not grapple with the fact that no one necessarily leads the mutiny. Moreover, most of the sentiment shaping the region’s pulse has emerged bottom-up, which means most of the regional leaders are just hitchhiking and riding the waves instead of shaping them.

Looking beyond whether the region votes for William Ruto, Raila Odinga, or anyone on the ballot, a seed has been planted that will sprout and affect the region and the country. Results on the political, social, and economic fronts will not be immediate, the establishment will definitely fight back, and a backlash might send the country back to the tribal ages. However, a needle has been moved, and more Kenyans realize that they have the power to fashion the change that they want. This is especially the case for the young people that bear the brunt of the status quo’s corruption, bad leadership, and serial lousy judgment. For most voters in Mount Kenya and across the country, the penny has finally dropped.

The Hustler Movement

Change is always painstaking, and false dawns are a real possibility, especially for a country and a people so set in their ways. It is even more problematic when such shifts require a significant reformulation of cultural and baked-in political patterns. However, breaking points also exist, and at times the Rubicon can be crossed. Although branded the hustler movement and associated closely with Deputy President Ruto’s political fortunes, this movement’s undercurrent point to an understated shift in the national mentality, a realization that “we the people” is a powerful clarion call that can be leveraged to effect change.

Poor people, unemployed young people, folks working in the informal sector, and Kenyans living from paycheck to paycheck, suddenly realize that their political power is a potent tool that can be used to change their lives and for future generations. This mentality differs starkly from the traditional meek and deferential approach adopted by Kenyans based on tribal affiliations. Post-independence Kenya has always had an ugly underbelly involving tribal politics. Most politicians leveraged their tribes to gain and retain power, using their communities as shields from responsibility and accountability and leveraging their quest for power and wealth.

Postmodern Kenya is threatening to emerge from the current triple crises – health, economic, and public trust. Having hit the nadir, most Kenyans have the lived experience of the impact of bad governance and the serial failure of the political class. More importantly, there is a realization that voters have to take individual responsibility for the leaders they elect, which is fast-upending traditional politics. The hustler nation, therefore, is a symptom of a restless and energizing political movement. Whoever harnesses these forces will be propelled to power in 2022.

Populist and Anti-Establishment Sentiments

The populism bug sweeping the Western world has not spared Kenya. Globally, there is an increase in the rejection of the establishment and political elites; instead, there is a preference for pro-working people agenda and populist, and even nationalist, candidates. Although the Western version of populism might differ starkly from the Kenyan one, the local electorate is increasingly animated by core pro-people issues. Exasperation with elected leaders is bubbling and can be demonstrably seen in the political class’s behavior. There is a genuine fear that their positions, jobs, and stature could be threatened in 2022. Old tricks of whipping up mass emotions to a frenzy using tribal tongue lashings no longer carry water. Aged divisive politics increasingly do not work. Something is afoot, and the Kenyan political dynamic is shifting.

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